Hurricane Sandy de-composed

The projected path of Hurricane Sandy provided by NOAA 4 days before the storm reached New York.

Following the previous entry about hurricane Sandy and its relevance to our discussion on abrupt climate change, I would like to share a video that is currently available on BBC. The documentary presents the period of time before and after Hurricane Sandy touched down on the US east coast. It shows the collaboration between the different institutions (i.e. fire department, transport, the electrical companies, expert opinions) in forecasting and preparing the city for the storm.

I woud like to highlight the last 5 mins of the video when the discussion turns towards relating adverse weather events to climate change. The narrator mentioned that 'expert opinion is divided on whether New York will face more frequent and destructive hurricanes in the future'. Coupled with rising sea levels as well as sea surface temperatures, this might cause storms that are significantly stronger and storm surges that are higher than what was experienced during Hurricane Sandy. An interesting point made in the documentary was that in the aftermath of the event, people wanted to put the event behind them and carry on with their lives (rebuilding their homes in the same areas with high risk of storm surges). I would like to point out that this is contrary to what is recommended by Bjørn Lomborg as mentioned in my previous post. 

Also, amidst the gloom of destruction, the documentary highlighted the accuracy of forecasts models which gave people the opportunity to evacuate before the storm hit. This is relevant to our discussion on managing the uncertainties and risks of abrupt climate change. With improvements in the accuracy of climate models, this would reduce the uncertainties in forecasting climate change. Lower uncertainties would better support the cost-benefit analysis of managing climate change and help us make better decisions in preparing for abrupt climate events. 

For more information on Hurricane Sandy, attached here is a news article which summarises the mechanisms of the hurricane presented in the BBC documentary.